The Tennessee Valley Authority released a draft Integrated Resource Plan for public review on Monday that evaluates options to meet an expected need for additional resources over the next 20 years.
Under development since the fall of 2013, TVA’s IRP is a power planning roadmap to 2033. It examines a variety of economic, regulatory and market-driven scenarios and strategies – both within and outside TVA’s control – to help TVA respond to changing energy demands while continuing to provide reliable power at the lowest possible cost.
“Scenario planning is useful for determining how various business decisions will perform in an uncertain future,” said Joe Hoagland, vice president of TVA Stakeholder Relations. “The goal is to develop scenarios that allow TVA to dynamically respond to market conditions and perform well regardless of how the future unfolds.”
TVA is updating its 2011 IRP due to dramatic changes in the utility industry. Such changes include abundant, low-cost natural gas, decreased cost of renewable generation and increased focus on energy conservation efforts.
The new IRP examines five main scenarios for the future. The first considered a continuation of TVA’s current nearly 1 percent annual growth in sales, the second considered no growth and the third considered slightly more robust sales in a growth economy. A fourth scenario was based on more aggressive regulations on carbon emissions and a fifth scenario considered a rapid adoption of off-grid distributed power generation.
Those scenarios were then used to assess five strategies that variously focus on current goals, an emphasis on emission targets, a reliance on market-supplied resources, a focus on maximizing energy efficiency and an emphasis on maximizing renewable energy.
Though the IRP is not final, the draft does contain some preliminary observations:
- There is a need for new capacity in every scenario;
- New natural gas capacity is needed in every scenario, as early as 2020 in some cases;
- There is no immediate need for new baseload (24/7) resources beyond the completion of Watts Bar Unit 2 and power upgrades or “uprates” being evaluated for Browns Ferry Nuclear station; and
- Higher cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy levels.
The draft IRP was developed with input from the public and contributions from a working group of stakeholders from local power companies, environmental organizations and other interested groups.
A copy of the draft IRP and the accompanying Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement have been posted at www.tva.com/environment/reports/irp. A public comment period will run from March 13 to April 27. Comments can be submitted on line at IRP@tva.gov or sent to Chuck Nicholson, NEPA Project Manager, Tennessee Valley Authority, 400 W. Summit Hill Dr., WT 11D, Knoxville, Tn., 37902
TVA will hold a series of public meetings to present the plan and answer questions beginning March 19 in Chattanooga; followed by Knoxville (April 6), Huntsville, Al. (April 9); Tupelo, Ms. (April 14); Memphis (April 15); Nashville (April 21), and Bowling Green, Ky. (April 22).
A final version of the IRP will be presented to the TVA board of directors later this summer.