Roy Exum
I have a bet, for just a Coca-Cola of course, that marijuana will be completely legal in the United States within 10 years. And the reason I am so keenly interested is because it is believed the climate and the soil of Tennessee are just perfect for raising a magnificent crop of ‘Ganja.’ Want me to go a step further: I want to grow it. Really, but I swear I don’t smoke it. Seriously it’s a great cash crop.
Growing (non-psychotic) hemp just became legal in Tennessee, which many believe is a step towards a different “weed.” Hemp is a cousin of “giggle weed,” don’t you see, and is used in so many things today it will boggle your mind.
Right now recreational marijuana is legal in four states. You can buy it as easily as you can a pack of cigarettes in Alaska, Colorado, Oregon and Washington. On Nov. 8, five more states will have legal wide-open marijuana on the ballot and I’ll bet just as many Cokes that “wacky tobacky” wins in every one:
The great investment-advisory website, The Motley Fool (fool.com), looks at those five with this view:
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CALIFORNIA – “Without question, the crown jewel of the marijuana movement would be a victory in California. California has the largest economy among U.S. states by a mile, and if it were a stand-alone country it would represent the eighth-largest annual GDP in the world,” writes the Fool’s Sean Williams. “Gaining recreational marijuana approval in California would give the industry access to a huge population of potential users, as well as give Congress the ultimate in marijuana guinea pigs to monitor,” he adds, pointing to estimates that taxes and licensing fees would give the state about $1 billion (with a “b”) in additional revenue.
NEVADA – Are you kidding me, it is a shoo-in! Here’s what Williams wrote, “Nevada is already home to "Sin City" and a vast network of medical marijuana dispensaries, making a move to legalize recreational marijuana only natural. If Question 2, as the ballot measure is known, is approved, recreational cannabis in Nevada would be subject to a 15% wholesale tax. The revenue generated from this tax would predominantly be shuffled into the K-12 education budget.”
MAINE – “… The move isn't surprising given that Maine legalized medical cannabis in 1999, becoming the sixth state in the U.S. to legalize the substance for certain medical ailments” and “… when the state’s (Marijuana Policy Project) asked respondents how they felt about taxing and regulating marijuana, regardless of how they felt about it, 59% favored the idea of taxing and regulating the substance. If approved, the first $30 million in tax revenue collected would go toward school construction, with the remainder heading into the state's General Fund.”
MASSACHUSETTS -- Williams cites a couple of 2014 polls as he says the initiative could fall but when the voters learn more there isn’t a chance it will not pass: “Massachusetts would require consumer to pay the state a 6.25% tax, plus a 3.75% excise tax. Local taxes could also be imposed, up to 2%. ArcView (a cannabis tracking firm) estimates that the legal recreational market could lead to $300 million in sales by 2018, with sales tripling to approximately $900 million by 2020. Inclusive of Massachusetts' medical marijuana market, we could be looking at a nearly $1.2 billion legal marijuana industry in the state by 2020.”
ARIZONA – The writer says this is a longshot but I disagree – there is too much momentum all across the county. Williams’ view: “A recently released poll from O.H. Predictive Insights showed that a mere 39% of Arizonans support the idea of recreational cannabis compared to 52.5% who oppose it. Another 8.5% of polled people remained undecided. According to (a spokesman) older Americans tend to be more conservative in their views of marijuana, and in Arizona older Americans appear more likely to vote, thus dooming the initiative to failure.”
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You might ask, why is Motley Fool, an investment source, so keenly interested in marijuana? Here’s Sean Williams' simple explanation. Read this slowly so it will really sink in. “Over the past 20 years we've seen incredible growth in the legal marijuana business.
“Starting with the passage of a compassionate use law in California in 1996 for medical patients, medical marijuana has become available in half of all U.S. states. Based on data from cannabis research firm ArcView, legal marijuana sales hit an estimated $5.4 billion in 2015 (that just in four states plus Washington D.C.) and legal sales could grow at an average of 30 percent per year through 2020.”
Just for fun, the Motley Fool predicted the next 11 states it believes will legalize recreational marijuana (in order of acceptance): Massachusetts, Nevada, California, New York, Vermont, Minnesota, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Maine and Delaware.
The last 11 states it is believed to legalize recreational marijuana (in order of reluctance): Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee (nonpsychoactive canabidiol for medical purpose is legal, as in Georgia, but there is no infrastructure to make it available,) Utah and Wyoming.
Want to invest in the future? Forget politics … marijuana, I’m telling you. It’s hot.
royexum@aol.com