Adam Brett Walker
photo by Tim Evearitt
With the promotion of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to the Minnesota Twins, it is only natural to wonder who is next. One would think that player might be Adam Brett Walker since he has hit a league leading 23 home runs and 68 RBI.
From gradingonthecurve.com comes Brody Hilgenkemp's article explaining the primary reason that Walker may never play regularly in the Major League - the article has been edited below.
One letter tells the whole story - K.
Walker hasn’t hit a home run in four days. That may not sound like a big deal, but actually, it sort of is.
The Twins prospect and Chattanooga Lookouts left fielder hit a two-run homer June 21 in a 6-5 win over the Jacksonville Suns. That was the last game before the Southern League All-Star break. Walker was on the All-Star team and went 1-for-5 with two runs in the game. He also won the home run hitting derby with 13 homers.
Walker’s power is prodigious. He leads the Southern League and the Minors in home runs with 23. He’s won the Florida State League and SL home run derbies in consecutive years and his .271 AVG/.328 OBP/.604 SLG slash line is an impressive one considering fellow Chattanooga teammates Buxton and Sano were promoted to the majors hitting .283/.351/.489/6 HR and .274/.374/.544/15 HR, respectively.
So why is he flying under the radar as one of the game’s best prospects?
Yes, Walker has a ton of power, but he’s also striking out at a mind-boggling rate. He also leads the Southern League in strikeouts by a wide margin; Walker has 113 Ks entering play Sunday, while second place has only 76. That makes for a 37.5 K%, which is almost six points higher than second place.
In today's baseball world, whiff-walk-and-wallop style of offense is inclined to forgive high-strikeout hitters if they have a significant amount of walk and wallop in their repertoire.
Walker’s strikeout rate is high by even the most lenient of standards, and it suggests it may be his undoing as he climbs the minors.
Over the past five seasons, few SL hitters have come close to whiffing at Walker’s K-rate, and none that are that high are threatening the majors. There are some with high rates to make the majors, Like Kyle Kubitza of the Angels and Jake Lamb of the Diamondbacks, but their whiff game wasn’t that high. Look at the other Double-A leagues, the Eastern League and Texas League, and the trend continues. The Padres’ Derek Norris (27.7 K% in 2011), the Nationals’ Michael Taylor (29.5 % in 2014) and the Astros’ Domingo Santana (29.2%, 2013) have had high K-rates as well.
The big question surrounding Walker is whether or not he’ll draw enough walks to make the feast-or-famine worth it.
Check out how Walker’s career stats line up to other power hitters while they were in the minors:
Walker 2012-2015: 3.13 BABIP/ 17.1 AB/HR / 27.5 K%/ 7.0 BB%
Chris Carter (Astros) 2005-2010: .331 BABIP/ 16. 9 AB/HR / 23.4 K% / 12.1 BB%
Adam Dunn (Reds, et.al) 1998-2001: .343 BABIP/ 19.2 AB/HR / 18.2 K% / 15.5 BB%
Chris Davis (Orioles) 2006-2008: .349 BABIP/ 14.1 AB/HR / 25.6 K% / 7.3 BB%
Kris Bryant (Cubs) 2013-2015: .397 BABIP / 11.8 AB/HR / 26.6 K% / 12.8 BB%
Miguel Sano (Twins) 2010-2015: .332 BABIP/ 15.4 AB/HR / 26.0 K%/ 12.2 BB%
Walker has the consistent power. But his walk rate is low compared to the other hitters. This is a very small sample of comparison, so hard conclusions can’t be drawn. Carter gets consistent playing time even though he’s been below the Mendoza the majority of the season, so teams aren’t unwilling to accommodate.
In short, the power will play. Walker will either need to draw more walks or cut way back on the strikeouts in order to make the jump to the majors.
Readers will want to check out Guy Curtwrights' story on Walker. http://tinyurl.com/ptq8esv
Adam Brett Walker
photo by Tim Evearitt